Probability Distributions Cheat Sheet

Complete reference for normal, binomial, Poisson, and exponential distributions with formulas, parameters, and use cases.

Last Updated: May 1, 2025

Normal Distribution

ItemDescription
PDF: f(x) = (1/(sigma*sqrt(2*pi))) * exp(-(x-mu)^2 / (2*sigma^2))Bell-shaped, symmetric around mean mu, spread sigma
Notation: X ~ N(mu, sigma^2)Mean mu, variance sigma^2
Standard Normal: Z ~ N(0,1)Z = (X - mu) / sigma — subtract mean, divide by std dev
68-95-99.7 Rule68% within 1 sigma, 95% within 2 sigma, 99.7% within 3 sigma
Use CasesHeights, test scores, measurement errors — any sum of many small effects
PitfallNot suitable for skewed data; log-transform first if needed

Binomial Distribution

ItemDescription
PMF: P(X=k) = C(n,k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k)Probability of exactly k successes in n independent trials
Notation: X ~ Bin(n, p)n = number of trials, p = probability of success per trial
Mean = n*p, Variance = n*p*(1-p)Expected successes and spread
Use CasesCoin flips, defect rates, A/B test conversions, survey responses
Normal ApproximationWhen n*p >= 10 and n*(1-p) >= 10, Bin(n,p) ~= N(n*p, n*p*(1-p))
PitfallTrials must be independent; without replacement, use hypergeometric

Poisson Distribution

ItemDescription
PMF: P(X=k) = (lambda^k * e^(-lambda)) / k!Probability of k events in a fixed interval
Notation: X ~ Poisson(lambda)lambda = mean rate (events per interval)
Mean = Variance = lambdaUnique property — mean equals variance
Use CasesWebsite hits per hour, call center arrivals, rare disease incidence, typos per page
Additive PropertySum of independent Poissons is Poisson with lambda = sum of lambdas
PitfallEvents must be independent; clustered events violate assumption

Exponential Distribution

ItemDescription
PDF: f(x) = lambda * e^(-lambda*x) for x >= 0Models waiting time until first event in a Poisson process
Notation: X ~ Exp(lambda)lambda = rate parameter, 1/lambda = mean waiting time
Mean = 1/lambda, Variance = 1/lambda^2Longer average wait = higher variance
Memoryless PropertyP(X > s+t | X > s) = P(X > t) — past waiting doesn't affect future
Use CasesTime between arrivals, equipment failure times, radioactive decay
PitfallConstant failure rate assumption; use Weibull for changing rates
Pro Tip: The normal distribution is the default assumption in most statistical tests. Always check if your data is actually normally distributed before applying Z-tests or t-tests.